The German city centers are in transition - visible on increasingly empty shop windows, Closed traditional pubs and the withdrawal of established retailers. What many investors have not concerned for a long time, is now increasingly developing to an economic risk: The structural change in inpatient trade directly affects the value of valuability and rentability of retail properties.
Particularly affected are particularly frequented city locations - exactly that locations, which were traditionally considered particularly valuable. But even in downtown Munich, Where with up to 340EUR/m² the highest commercial areas are called up in German -speaking countries, stand empty. In Frankfurt, owners in top locations require up to 270EUR/m², In Düsseldorf, the rental level is at a similar level. In Berlin, the commercial rents in popular districts even doubled within ten years. However, this development is no longer accompanied by stable yields.
High frequency no longer guarantees stability
Kaufingerstrasse in Munich is considered the most visited shopping street in the entire roof room. In February 2025 she counted 1.8 million passers -by. Nevertheless, even retailers have to close - the relationship between sales to rent is no longer correct for many. Similar to Frankfurter Nordend: Coffee read, above 23 Established for years, gave, After a rent increase was announced by 70%. In Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg, For a long time synonym for flourishing gastronomy, Several traditional restaurants are currently being closed, Including the cult object "Watt". The reason: Expiring or non -extended rental contracts - no longer economically portable.
These cases are not isolated cases, but part of a Germany -wide development. According to the trade association Germany (Hde) have been around since the beginning of pandemic 40.000 Retailers disappear from the market. A forecast assumes, that more in the next four years 46.000 Businesses will follow. The cause include rising rental costs, changed consumption behavior and the high loads due to inflation -related index rental contracts - a model, The common practice in the commercial segment is.
Index rents and inflation: A risky combination
In contrast to residential conditions, commercial rental contracts often provide index clauses, which allow multiple adjustment per year. Especially in the inflation years 2022 and 2023 had to pay higher rents over 50% of the dealers. While at the same time the customer frequency sank in many districts, Numerous traders could no longer compensate for this additional burden - neither through price increases nor through sales growth. In particular, owner -managed companies meet hard.
An analysis of the IHK Baden shows, that around 30% of all commercial inner city companies (retail, service, gastronomy) are so bad today, that they will no longer exist without a course correction within the next ten years. Particularly problematic: Larger chains are also affected - and their retreat affects the surrounding infrastructure disproportionately.
Macro effects on entire districts - also relevant for investors
The economic consequences go beyond individual rental relationships. Closes a big shop or department store, Often the entire environment breaks - smaller businesses lose their walk -in customers, Visiting events go back, All streets are desolate. This spiral from vacancy, Falling passers -by frequency and loss of attractiveness not only endangers the rental yield, but also the traffic values of objects in the medium term.
Even gentrified quarters such as the Maxvorstadt in Munich or Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg are not immune. In both layers, property prices have been stagnating for almost three years despite the sunken interest - a clear warning signal for investors, that pure location quality is no longer sufficient.
Solution approaches: Moving partnerships and new usage concepts
The HDE and numerous IHKs now advise you on sales -based rental models. These enable flexibility: The business runs well, benefit landlords directly with. The economic burden for the tenant is reduced in weaker phases - this lowers the risk of default and stabilizes the cash flow. Also combinations of minimum rent plus sales component gain in importance. Because of the regulatory limitation “Active entrepreneurial management” this is especially for regulated real estate assets, only possible to a limited extent.
In addition, landlords must rethink - strategic questions from investor perspective. The changed market logic requires new approaches to existing real estate. Anyone who invests or holds in inner -city trading sites today, must deal with the following central questions:
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Which types of use will be sustainable in the future?
Classic retail loses the economic substance in many locations. Instead, other concepts gain relevance: Showrooms with online connection, Medical services, Local supply or specialized manufacture formats offer stability, Because they depend less on walk -in customers. Also hybrid use (sale + Advice + Shipment) becomes increasingly relevant. -
What mixed forms - for example from trade, gastronomy, Culture, Services or temporary use - can be realized?
Mixed concepts provide frequency, create synergies and increase the quality of stay. The combination of day catering with co-working elements, Micro-culture offers or pop-up areas can set new impulses, especially in quarter with high fluctuation and young target group. -
How sustainable is the previous usage concept under the new framework conditions?
A well -founded usage analysis reveals weaknesses early: The tenant profile still fits the microlage? Is the object barrier -free, energy -efficient, ESG-compliant? The areas can be flexibly adapted to different formats? -
How high is the re-investment potential or. The capital requirement for conversion or repositioning?
Not every conversion pays off - but targeted investments in substance, Area efficiency and third -party ability to improve the rentability and ensure long -term values. A location- and rental price forecast is mandatory here. -
How can the risk of structural vacancies be reduced?
Flexible Mietmodelle (z. B. sales -dependent rent, Relay models, temporary usage) Reduce the risk of termination and enable an adaptation to market fluctuations - a decisive advantage in volatile phases. -
What role does the ESG strategy play for commercial properties?
Energy efficiency, Social usage concepts (z. B. Quartiersintegration) And governance issues are increasingly becoming the focus of institutional investors even in commercial properties. Who ignores ESG factors, will risk evaluation discounts and restricted access to funding funds in the future. -
How does the location quality change through the decline in frequency anchors (z. B. Department stores)?
The withdrawal of large retail chains can trigger negative spillover effects. A re -evaluation of the macro- and microlage - including accessibility, mobility, social environment - is essential, To realistically assess location opportunities.
In terms of value and rental stability, in times of structural change, there are no longer any self -run. You set active management, Creative usage concepts and a resilient understanding of urban development ahead. Especially in B-layers or changing quarters, the rent from yesterday does not decide, but the use potential of tomorrow about the success of an investment.
Advice as a value protection instrument
Especially in a market environment, that changes dynamically, is crucial. Owners should have the current performance and the potential of their objects analyzed professionally - with a focus on rent structure, Usage concept, ESG conformity and marketability. Without such measures, rental problems threaten, Loss of value and expensive conversion measures without a strategy.
Accompany change proactively - recognize opportunities
The times, in which were decided solely by the success, Are over. Today it is about intelligent usage concepts, Fair rental structures and the ability, to react flexibly to structural market changes. For owners and investors, this change not only offers risks, but also opportunities - if he is actively accompanied.
